EV of shoves

I recently played in a $4 180-man on PokerStars where I made a lot of borderline shoves.  I decided to calculate the EV of these shoves using PokerStove and Sheets' spreadsheets on PokerXFactor (which I unfortunately can't make available) and post them.

Hand 1:  1,595 chips w/ blinds at 50/100 and I have 9♥ 9♠ UTG.  Not wanting to make a normal raise b/c this is not a hand that I want flatcalled, I decided to shove all-in.  I gave my opponents a 3.8% calling range of {TT+,AQs+,AKo} against which I am 32.9% to win if called.  As it turns out the EV of this shove is -30 chips.  This is a pretty solid and optimal calling raise I think, however, if my opponents were looser or tighter, this shove would be +EV.  I would either be stealing more often, or I would be called more and winning more often against their calling range.

Result:  I shoved and everyone folded.

Hand 2:  1,420 chips w/ blinds at 75/150 and I have 8♥ 8♠ on the button.  UTG limps for 150 and the hijack raises to 599.  I have no reads on the HJ, so I figured him for a 9.4% range of {55+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} against which I am 47.6% to win if called.  He can't really fold to my shove, since he will be getting 2.9-to-1 on a call and has to call w/ any two cards.  The remaining players need a very tight range of {TT+,AQs+,AKo} to call as well.  This shove is pretty ambiguous as the EV is +8 chips on average.

Result:  I shoved and was called by the HJ w/ K♣ K♦.  The board ran 5♠ 8♦ 9♥ 2♣ 7♣ and I luckboxed into a double up!

Hand 3:   2,390 chips w/ blinds at 100/200 and I have A♣ 6♦ on the button.  I shoved, anticipating being called by a loose 11.5% range of {55+,A8s+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo}.  I am only 32.5% against this range, but w/ only the two blinds remaining the EV of the shove is +61 chips.

Result:  I shoved and was called by the SB w/ A♥ J♣.  The board ran 10♠ 10♣ 5♥ K♦ 5♠ and I was lucky to chop.

Hand 4:  2,765 chips w/ blinds at 125/250 and 25 ante.  I have A♦ J♦ UTG+1 at a 7-handed table.  I shoved, expecting a fairly loose 10.4% calling range of {66+,ATs+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo} against which I am 46.4% to win.  The EV of this shove is +303 chips.

Result:  I shoved and everyone folded.

Hand 5:  2,740 chips w/ blinds at 150/300 and 25 ante.  I have Q♥ J♥ UTG+1 at an 8-handed table.  I shoved, expecting a 10.0% calling range of {77+,ATs+,KJs+,ATo+,KQo} against which I am 35.85% to win.  The EV of this shove is +41 chips.

Result:  I shoved and was called by the cutoff w/ 9♥ 9♠.  The board ran K♦ 6♦ J♠ 5♦ 10♥ and I won the race.

Hand 6:  5,430 chips w/ blinds at 150/300 w/ 25 ante.  I have A♥ 10♦ UTG.  I folded b/c I expected raising and shoving to both be -EV when UTG w/ an M of 8.  I would expect a tight 3.8% calling range of {TT+,AQs+,AKo} when facing a 18BB UTG shove which I would be 26.2% against.  The EV of this shove would have been -168 chips.  If my opponents are calling lighter, my EV gets even worse.  It doesn't pay to ship light UTG for a lot of chips!

Hand 7:  Blinds at 150/300 w/ 25 ante and I have 4,930 chips after posting the SB.  I am dealt Q♦ 7♦ and everyone folds to me.  I expect to be called very lightly here, perhaps as light as a 24.0% range of {44+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,A2o+,KJo+,QJo} against which I am 36.6% to win.  The EV of this shove is +219 chips.

Result:  I shoved and the BB called w/ A♣ 5♥.  The board ran 2♥ 5♠ J♣ 10♣ 9♦ and I was eliminated in 26th, 8 spots short of the money.

Even though I busted out short of the money, I never would have had the chance to run even that deep if I had not been making slightly +EV shoves (and one -EV shove) along the way.  I got lucky to survive a couple of times, but I was unlucky to run into a hand in those spots in the first place.  The only hand that I don't like is hand 2 where I shoved 8-8.  The EV is so neutral there that I probably should have just passed and waited for a better spot.  After all, I'm confident in my ability to beat these tournaments!