Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) -Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: HorusKomaRa (2720 in chips)
Seat 2: kane11brian (2990 in chips)
Seat 3: bigdog4all (2720 in chips)
Seat 4: $.PA1DNFUL.$ (3030 in chips)
Seat 5: Wolf_CorpS (6040 in chips)
Seat 6: hobbesy (2920 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero (3000 in chips)
Seat 8: 1DeMoN1 (3000 in chips)
Seat 9: jetsie (3560 in chips)
$.PA1DNFUL.$: posts small blind 10
Wolf_CorpS: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero J♦ J♥
hobbesy: folds Hero: raises 40 to 60
1DeMoN1: folds
jetsie: calls 60
HorusKomaRa: folds
kane11brian: calls 60
bigdog4all: folds
$.PA1DNFUL.$: folds
Wolf_CorpS: folds
A 3X raise preflop looks fine w/ J-J from UTG+1.
*** FLOP *** 8♣ 9♦ 7♦
Hero: bets 160
jetsie: calls 160
kane11brian: calls 160
Your bet on the flop also looks good as you are betting 160 into a pot of 210, against two opponents. You want to bet more than half of the size of the pot here since your opponents could easily be holding a 10, 6, or two diamonds and you want to charge them to draw.
*** TURN *** [8♣ 9♦ 7♦] 5♥
Hero: checksjetsie: checks
kane11brian: bets 140
Hero: calls 140
jetsie: calls 140
Things are becoming complicated. The pot is now 690, which would be a good addition to your stack. Most draws have missed, but any 6 makes your opponents a straight. Betting and checking are both reasonable here as both of your opponents could easily be drawing. I lean toward checking to see what develops. After kane bets 140, I can't find a fold. The pot is 830 and it is 140 to call; your pot odds are 5.9-to-1, so if you have >14.4% chance of having or making the best hand on the river, you should call. You have the best hand often enough to continue here, even though you are out of position w/ one opponent still to act. As an added bonus, a 10 on the river would give you a straight (you will catch a 10 around 8% of the time).
*** RIVER *** [8♣ 9♦ 7♦ 5♥] J♣
Hero: bets 380 jetsie: folds
kane11brian: folds
Hero collected 1110 from pot
I love a bet here, but it may not be for the reasons that you would think. Even though you have made a set, the J on the river is not a good card b/c it likely brought the straight home for one or both of your opponents. Because of this, you really cannot call any reasonable bet from either player. Chances are that one or even both opponents have either hit their straight or missed a flush draw, either of which may bet. But it is very possible that one of the villains flopped a small set or two pair and played it slow. Poor players do this often, even on dangerous boards like this one. They are caught between slowplaying a big hand and trying to keep the pot small on a dangerous board, so they make costly mistakes by not getting value when they are ahead, but paying off bets once they are beaten. It is the responsibility of good players to punish mistakes like these! Getting a call from a hand like J-9, 8-7 or 8-8 seems very possible. There is also a remote possibility of getting an opponent to fold a 6 here, fearing that you have a 10. This will not happen often, however. I actually prefer a bet of 275-300 in this spot since the bets have been so small in this hand. You look like you're selling a straight, while giving up fewer chips the times you are raised.
One necessary thing about betting the river here is that you must fold to a raise. Even awful opponents are not going to be raising you here w/out a 10 in their hand, so you must have the discipline to lay your hand down if your river bet is raised. If you know that you cannot lay this hand down, then check the river and call if one of the villain's bets. Even then, you have to fold if jetsie bets and kane raises. Again, nobody is raising a bet w/out a 10 here.
In fact, at higher stakes or later in this tournament, I might just check/fold against two villains b/c a bluff would be very unlikely on this board w/ this action. I would check/call against a single opponent who could very well bet a missed flush draw here.
One necessary thing about betting the river here is that you must fold to a raise. Even awful opponents are not going to be raising you here w/out a 10 in their hand, so you must have the discipline to lay your hand down if your river bet is raised. If you know that you cannot lay this hand down, then check the river and call if one of the villain's bets. Even then, you have to fold if jetsie bets and kane raises. Again, nobody is raising a bet w/out a 10 here.
In fact, at higher stakes or later in this tournament, I might just check/fold against two villains b/c a bluff would be very unlikely on this board w/ this action. I would check/call against a single opponent who could very well bet a missed flush draw here.
Great analysis.
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