I'm excited about the Final Table of the World Series of Poker Main Event on Saturday!
Seat 1: Jason Senti 7,625,000
Seat 2: Joseph Cheong 23,525,000
Seat 3: John Dolan 46,250,000
Seat 4: Jonathan Duhamel 65,975,000
Seat 5: Michael Mizrachi 14,450,000
Seat 6: Matthew Jarvis 16,700,000
Seat 7: John Racener 19,050,000
Seat 8: Filippo Candio 16,400,000
Seat 9: Soi Nguyen 9,650,000
The blinds will start at 250,000 / 500,000 with a 50,000 ante. So each revolution will cost the players 1,200,000!
Jason Senti is going to be looking for a reshove spot right off the bat. He could be the earliest final table elimination of anybody since the November Nine format began three years ago. His table position is fairly poor as well, since the aggressive Cheong and chipleader Duhamel are on his left.
Soi Nguyen has played very aggressively so far, but I expect the amateur to wait for Senti to double or bust before he gets aggressive on the final table. He appears to be the player that would need the most luck to win the title.
There usually seems to be a player at every final table that freezes up and refuses to take chances. In 2006, it was Rhett Butler. In 2007 it was Tuan Lam (though he started with a large stack and managed to double a couple times late). In 2008, it started as Darus Suharto until his mammoth bluff ran into Ivan Demidov's flopped set. Instead it was Ylon Schwartz who went into a shell after his Q-Q was cracked by Dennis Phillips' A-Q. Last year it might have been Kevin Schaffel, but his A-A was cracked, eliminating him early. This year, I have a weird hunch that it may be Filippo Candio. He went on tilt after calling large bets on the turn and river w/ Q-Q against Cheong's set of nines. He then committed his stack w/ 7-5 on a flop of 6-6-5 against Cheong's A-A and luckboxed out when the turn and river came 8 4. He went into a shell after that. He seemed the most awed by the final table and the most likely to let it affect his game.
Matthew Jarvis lost a ton of chips on the final table bubble, but he did recover to bust Brandon Steven in 10th place. I could see him falling into the tight trap as well, though he has gotten aggressive in all of the right spots so far.
John Racener may the best player at the table (yes, even better than Grinder, gasp!) and he has good table position. All of the big stacks are across the table; he has only shorties to his left, which should help him avoid big pots for awhile. However, if Candio, Nguyen, and Senti bust, he will then have Cheong on his left, which may be a problem.
Chip leader Jonathan Duhamel reminds me of Peter Eastgate. Both are known as cash game players and both look unflappable. Duhamel also has great position on the other big stacks, although Grinder is on his left. If Grinder gets hold of chips, he could be a major thorn in Duhamel's side. If he goes out early, this could be Duhamel's show.
John Dolan is a bit of a wildcard. He seems to have the tools to take it down, but he might not enjoy the spotlight that will be on this final table. Being sandwiched between the aggressive Cheong and Duhamel is a big disadvantage as well. But he does come to the table with the second largest chip stack, so he cannot be ignored.
Joseph Cheong seems to be the most aggressive player at the table and perhaps the best example of an "internet whizkid". He 4-bet John Dolan preflop w/ 7-6s on the final table bubble, showing that he has the chops take the whole thing down. His biggest obstacle is position; he might have the worst position of anyone at the table w/ bigger stacks Dolan and Duhamel on his immediate left.
Finally, the Grinder. Michael Mizrachi is hoping to be the first well known player to win the Main Event since 2001. He has the best position of anyone at the table w/ big stacks Duhamel, Dolan, and Cheong immediately on his right. He also has mid-stacks on his left, which are often bluffable. I think we may see Grinder come out very aggressively; if he doubles up once, he could make life very tough for the chipleaders. He also could be crippled by a couple of moves that backfire against him when Jarvis and Racener refuse to let Grinder run them over.
I know my predictions will almost definitely be way off, but here we go!
9th: Soi Nguyen - Can't hold on any longer after Senti doubles up
8th: Filippo Candio - Short after doubling Senti and has to make a move
7th: Matthew Jarvis - Loses a big pot to Grinder in a bvb or button v. SB confrontation
6th: Joseph Cheong - Awful table position forces him to play tightly until he loses patience
5th: Jason Senti - One double-up isn't enough
4th: John Dolan - Finds life tough between Cheong and Duhamel
3rd: Michael Mizrachi - Pressure of the poker world is too much in the end
2nd: Jonathan Duhamel - Spews a few too many chips in critical spots
1st: John Racener - Takes full advantage of position on Grinder
This final table will be heads-up in ~10 hours and the heads-up battle will take <2 hours. I also think that play will reach 6-handed in <4 hours.
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